NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL27242431106
NY36353515121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 30 3 6
Moritz Wagner 28 20 12 1
Jalen Suggs S 39 14 3 3
Cole Anthony 13 10 3 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 27 9 3 0
Tristan da Silva S 22 8 2 0
Anthony Black 20 6 1 3
Jonathan Isaac 13 4 1 0
Caleb Houstan 7 3 0 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 20 2 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 23 15 0
Jalen Brunson S 27 21 2 4
Mikal Bridges S 36 19 2 5
Miles McBride 26 18 3 4
OG Anunoby S 32 18 2 2
Josh Hart S 39 11 13 10
Cameron Payne 19 7 0 3
Jericho Sims 12 4 2 1
Ariel Hukporti 3 0 0 0
Pacome Dadiet 3 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
9 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
28%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 26.0 5.7 7.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.4 9.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.3 12.5 4.5
4 Mikal Bridges NY 17.5 3.9 3.2
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.1 5.7 1.9
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.8 3.7 3.9
7 Josh Hart NY 15.0 6.8 5.0
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.1 5.0 2.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.2 2.3 1.9
10 Miles McBride NY 9.9 3.0 2.2
11 Anthony Black ORL 9.8 2.9 4.0
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.8 7.7 1.8
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.6 7.1 1.9
14 Cameron Payne NY 8.6 2.3 3.0
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.2 3.6 1.7
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.5 5.8 0.7
17 Cole Anthony ORL 4.2 1.6 1.1
18 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.8 0.8
19 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 4.1 0.9
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.4 1.1 1.0
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.5 0.6
22 Matt Ryan NY 2.6 0.7 0.5
23 Jacob Toppin NY 1.9 1.0 0.5
24 Cory Joseph ORL 1.8 0.8 0.5
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.8 1.0 0.4
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.