NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
128–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL36423218128
DET31282919107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 28 28 7 8
Damian Lillard S 32 27 4 5
Gary Trent Jr. 27 16 3 2
Taurean Prince S 24 14 2 3
Bobby Portis 26 14 4 3
AJ Green 22 11 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 19 8 0 1
Brook Lopez S 33 5 6 1
AJ Johnson 2 5 1 0
Chris Livingston 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 33 23 5 6
Tobias Harris S 33 16 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 15 3 1
Jalen Duren S 20 11 6 2
Isaiah Stewart 20 9 6 2
Ausar Thompson 14 8 5 1
Jaden Ivey S 30 8 3 5
Paul Reed 6 6 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 12 5 2 0
Malik Beasley 18 4 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
18%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
8%
6 Tobias Harris DET
7%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
10%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.9 10.7 8.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.5 4.2 8.0
3 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 7.8 9.2
4 Jaden Ivey DET 19.2 4.3 5.5
5 Malik Beasley DET 16.8 3.9 2.7
6 Brook Lopez MIL 14.6 5.1 2.2
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.4 6.2 2.5
8 Bobby Portis MIL 11.8 6.0 1.8
9 Taurean Prince MIL 10.3 4.2 1.9
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.0 9.2 2.2
11 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.8 1.2
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.7 2.4 1.2
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 1.8 1.7
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 7.1 2.4 1.5
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 2.7 1.3
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.3 4.9 1.4
17 Ausar Thompson DET 5.9 2.5 2.9
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 3.4 1.1
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.7 4.1 1.6
20 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.1 3.2 1.1
21 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.6 1.4
22 Delon Wright MIL 4.4 2.5 1.9
23 Paul Reed DET 3.9 2.2 0.7
24 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.9 1.1 0.8
25 AJ Johnson MIL 2.6 0.9 1.7
26 Tyler Smith MIL 2.1 1.2 0.3
27 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 1.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.