NBA games

WSH @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
87–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2022252087
CLE35252632118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CLE
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas S 19 13 11 0
Jordan Poole S 24 13 1 4
Bub Carrington 36 13 7 2
Alex Sarr S 27 10 9 2
Jared Butler 17 10 0 1
Richaun Holmes 13 6 3 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 6 7 4
Malcolm Brogdon S 22 6 2 1
Corey Kispert 9 4 2 2
Anthony Gill 18 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 28 19 5 7
Evan Mobley S 31 19 10 2
Georges Niang 26 14 6 1
Sam Merrill 23 14 3 6
Darius Garland S 17 12 0 3
Jarrett Allen S 25 11 3 1
Caris LeVert 24 10 2 3
Isaac Okoro S 30 9 5 3
Tristan Thompson 6 6 3 1
Jaylon Tyson 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
9%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
21%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.4 6.4 4.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 22.8 3.6 7.4
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.4 3.5 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.6 11.3 3.4
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 15.4 5.1 3.1
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 10.6 1.8
7 Caris LeVert CLE 13.2 3.9 4.3
8 Corey Kispert WSH 12.9 3.9 1.8
9 Alex Sarr WSH 12.5 6.1 1.9
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.3 5.5 3.1
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.9 7.9 1.8
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.1 3.4 4.1
13 Georges Niang CLE 10.1 3.6 1.6
14 Kyshawn George WSH 8.0 3.4 2.6
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.3 2.5 1.9
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.6 2.4 1.6
17 Dean Wade CLE 5.2 2.9 1.5
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.9 1.3 1.3
19 Anthony Gill WSH 3.6 1.6 0.7
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.5 2.1 1.0
21 Jared Butler WSH 3.2 1.0 1.6
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.3 0.4
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.6 2.1 0.3
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.