NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
110–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI32232530110
CHA20242535104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 37 29 2 8
Tyrese Maxey S 37 21 3 7
Jared McCain 22 17 1 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 14 2 0
KJ Martin S 22 9 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 33 7 12 4
Adem Bona 14 6 1 0
Caleb Martin 24 5 4 2
Ricky Council IV 10 2 1 2
Kyle Lowry 13 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 37 34 3 1
Nick Richards S 30 22 14 2
Cody Martin 31 12 2 3
Tidjane Salaun S 26 10 10 0
KJ Simpson 28 8 6 9
Nick Smith Jr. 11 7 2 3
Vasilije Micic S 19 5 2 2
Mark Williams 9 4 3 0
Seth Curry 5 2 0 0
Josh Green S 36 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Paul George makes 16-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Paul George PHI
11%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
4 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
5 Caleb Martin PHI
9%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
7 Josh Green CHA
8%
8 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
9 Tidjane Salaun CHA
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
15%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.9 3.7 5.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.6 5.9 4.3
3 Jared McCain PHI 22.5 3.4 3.9
4 Paul George PHI 15.1 5.3 4.7
5 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.8 6.2 1.6
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 10.7 5.7 1.6
7 Caleb Martin PHI 9.4 3.2 2.1
8 Nick Richards CHA 9.4 8.2 1.2
9 Josh Green CHA 9.4 3.2 1.8
10 Cody Martin CHA 7.9 5.0 2.3
11 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 3.6 1.2
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 9.5 1.2
13 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.6 2.5 2.2
14 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.3 2.1 2.7
15 KJ Martin PHI 4.8 2.5 0.9
16 KJ Simpson CHA 4.7 2.1 1.4
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.4 2.1 0.8
18 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.9 1.1 1.6
19 Eric Gordon PHI 3.8 1.4 1.3
20 Justin Edwards PHI 3.5 1.6 0.6
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.3 1.1 0.8
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 3.1 0.5
23 Seth Curry CHA 2.7 1.0 0.5
24 Adem Bona PHI 2.1 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.