NBA games

SAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
106–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30202234106
POR25293328115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home POR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 36 29 3 9
De'Aaron Fox S 36 22 5 5
Domantas Sabonis S 41 21 14 11
Jae Crowder S 21 10 2 0
Isaac Jones 20 7 4 0
Keon Ellis S 24 6 4 1
Keegan Murray S 29 3 6 0
Doug McDermott 8 3 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 12 2 1 1
Colby Jones 3 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 41 26 9 2
Anfernee Simons S 41 21 5 9
Deni Avdija S 37 20 9 5
Dalano Banton 23 17 2 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 14 4 5
Toumani Camara S 33 11 4 2
Jabari Walker 10 4 4 1
Kris Murray 16 2 3 1
Duop Reath 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keon Ellis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Keon Ellis makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
10%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Deni Avdija POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
19%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.9 5.1 6.8
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.3 12.1 6.6
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.9 3.6 2.6
4 Anfernee Simons POR 16.3 3.1 3.7
5 Deandre Ayton POR 15.0 9.8 1.6
6 Jerami Grant POR 14.5 3.0 2.3
7 Malik Monk SAC 14.1 4.0 3.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.9 7.3 1.8
9 Deni Avdija POR 12.9 5.8 3.4
10 Scoot Henderson POR 11.2 2.9 5.3
11 Dalano Banton POR 11.0 3.7 3.0
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.4 4.2 2.4
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.1 2.1
14 Keon Ellis SAC 8.6 2.7 1.3
15 Donovan Clingan POR 6.4 7.0 0.7
16 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 4.0 1.7 1.1
17 Doug McDermott SAC 3.8 1.4 0.7
18 Isaiah Crawford SAC 3.7 2.1 0.7
19 Kris Murray POR 3.5 1.7 0.5
20 Rayan Rupert POR 3.4 1.6 0.7
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.4 2.0 0.5
22 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.9 0.7
23 Jabari Walker POR 2.9 2.1 0.8
24 Colby Jones SAC 2.3 1.0 0.5
25 Mason Jones SAC 2.2 1.4 1.0
26 Taze Moore POR 1.9 1.4 0.4
27 Duop Reath POR 1.8 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.