NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
101–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32192030101
LAL2424212493

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 36 6 9
Jalen Williams S 34 19 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 24 14 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 37 11 18 5
Aaron Wiggins 18 7 7 0
Kenrich Williams 12 5 5 0
Ajay Mitchell 18 4 0 0
Isaiah Joe 24 3 0 0
Cason Wallace S 31 2 5 2
Dillon Jones 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalton Knecht S 33 20 6 4
D'Angelo Russell 26 17 9 3
Anthony Davis S 38 15 12 7
LeBron James S 34 12 8 6
Austin Reaves S 29 11 5 3
Max Christie 23 8 1 0
Rui Hachimura S 30 8 5 2
Gabe Vincent 15 2 1 0
Cam Reddish 13 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
5 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
7 Dalton Knecht LAL
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
9 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 4.5 6.6
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.6 11.8 3.8
3 LeBron James LAL 24.8 9.7 9.5
4 Jalen Williams OKC 24.0 6.4 5.6
5 Austin Reaves LAL 16.9 3.1 5.1
6 Dalton Knecht LAL 14.2 4.3 1.4
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.7 10.4 3.9
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 12.2 2.9 4.2
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.1 4.7 1.5
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 5.3 1.9
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.5 3.6 1.8
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.0 3.1 1.8
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 3.4 2.2
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.9 2.0 1.9
15 Cam Reddish LAL 6.4 3.0 1.1
16 Max Christie LAL 5.9 2.1 1.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.4 1.1
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.2 1.4 0.8
19 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 2.7 1.0
20 Armel Traore LAL 3.2 2.8 0.5
21 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 2.3 0.6
22 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.9 1.5 0.5
23 Branden Carlson OKC 2.0 1.5 0.4
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.0 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.