NBA games

BOS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
138–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS39282942138
CHI30372933129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHI
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 35 14 5
Payton Pritchard 29 29 7 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 21 8 1
Jaylen Brown S 37 21 2 4
Derrick White S 24 16 6 4
Jrue Holiday S 36 11 8 4
Sam Hauser 22 3 3 1
Al Horford 25 2 1 3
Neemias Queta 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 34 32 11 3
Zach LaVine S 35 29 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 16 0 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 13 1 5
Torrey Craig 13 11 3 0
Coby White S 33 11 6 4
Julian Phillips 7 5 0 0
Josh Giddey S 24 4 8 9
Matas Buzelis 5 2 2 0
Jalen Smith 14 2 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Al Horford BOS
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Coby White CHI
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
46%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.7 8.7 6.8
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.4 6.1 5.3
3 Zach LaVine CHI 21.9 4.8 5.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.8 9.8 3.6
5 Derrick White BOS 18.7 5.0 5.1
6 Coby White CHI 18.3 4.2 4.4
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 13.6 2.7 3.2
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.6 3.5 3.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.0 4.4 4.3
10 Josh Giddey CHI 11.7 5.4 5.5
11 Al Horford BOS 10.9 5.8 2.3
12 Neemias Queta BOS 8.7 6.6 1.1
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.6 3.1 1.2
14 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 7.5 2.4 1.6
15 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.3 2.4 2.6
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.1 4.6 1.0
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.7 2.8 0.7
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 4.6 1.3
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 1.5 1.2
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.8 2.9 0.7
21 Drew Peterson BOS 4.2 1.3 0.5
22 Torrey Craig CHI 3.6 1.5 0.4
23 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.5 1.8 0.6
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.3 1.4 0.6
25 Jevon Carter CHI 3.3 1.3 0.8
26 Jaden Springer BOS 2.7 1.0 0.8
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.4 0.5
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.4 0.4
29 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.0 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.