NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
111–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR21402327111
MIA20383825121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 39 25 6 7
Scottie Barnes S 38 24 10 10
Jakob Poeltl S 32 24 10 1
Ochai Agbaji S 32 13 5 3
Jonathan Mogbo 15 7 3 2
Ja'Kobe Walter S 26 6 3 2
Jamison Battle 17 5 2 1
Davion Mitchell 20 4 1 3
Chris Boucher 13 3 6 2
Jamal Shead 7 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 26 2 6
Tyler Herro S 37 23 3 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 15 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 35 14 10 10
Terry Rozier 25 12 3 4
Duncan Robinson S 28 10 2 2
Kevin Love 13 8 2 2
Haywood Highsmith S 27 6 4 1
Pelle Larsson 18 5 1 0
Alec Burks 7 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 10:16 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
18%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
7 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
15%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 5.3 6.0
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 8.0 6.6
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.3 6.9 6.2
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.2 5.6 5.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.6 9.8 5.4
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.9 11.8 2.2
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.6 4.5 1.9
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.5 2.9 2.5
9 Terry Rozier MIA 11.4 3.5 2.8
10 Chris Boucher TOR 9.1 4.9 0.9
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.8 3.0 1.3
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.6 5.3 2.0
13 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.2 2.7 4.9
14 Alec Burks MIA 6.3 2.5 1.6
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.2 2.0 1.4
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.3 1.8 1.0
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.3 2.8 0.8
18 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.9 3.8 1.3
19 Kevin Love MIA 4.8 3.7 0.8
20 Jamal Shead TOR 4.4 1.3 1.8
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.2 3.5 0.9
22 Josh Richardson MIA 3.7 1.2 1.2
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.6 2.8 1.3
24 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.2 1.8 0.6
25 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.1 0.6
26 Dru Smith MIA 3.0 1.7 1.4
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.4 2.0 0.8
28 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 1.1 0.7
29 D.J. Carton TOR 1.9 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.