NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
130–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET33302938130
IND24292033106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 29 25 1 1
Cade Cunningham S 33 24 6 11
Jaden Ivey S 31 23 5 6
Tobias Harris S 30 16 5 3
Jalen Duren S 26 14 12 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 27 10 4 1
Ronald Holland II 12 6 7 2
Simone Fontecchio 17 5 0 1
Ausar Thompson 12 5 1 4
Isaiah Stewart 22 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 21 9 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 19 1 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 36 16 0 1
T.J. McConnell 24 12 2 3
Jarace Walker 31 10 3 4
Quenton Jackson S 16 10 2 2
Myles Turner S 28 9 10 2
Obi Toppin 25 5 3 2
Enrique Freeman 4 2 0 1
Johnny Furphy 5 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
10%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
6 Myles Turner IND
8%
7 Jalen Duren DET
8%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
39%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.6 8.0 10.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.1 6.5 3.6
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.9 4.8 5.3
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.9 3.4 9.8
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.8 7.7 2.4
6 Malik Beasley DET 16.7 4.0 2.6
7 Myles Turner IND 16.0 7.7 1.6
8 Tobias Harris DET 14.7 6.4 2.2
9 Jalen Duren DET 10.1 9.1 2.5
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.9 6.1 1.6
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.8 2.4 1.8
12 T.J. McConnell IND 9.3 3.7 3.7
13 Quenton Jackson IND 8.3 2.8 2.1
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.1 1.6
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.3 2.7 1.3
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.9 1.8 1.5
17 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.7 1.7 3.3
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.4 4.0 1.8
19 Ronald Holland II DET 5.9 3.2 0.9
20 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.3 3.2 1.3
21 Cole Swider DET 5.1 2.5 1.0
22 Moses Brown IND 4.8 2.5 0.5
23 Paul Reed DET 4.5 2.7 0.8
24 Tristen Newton IND 3.6 1.1 1.8
25 Johnny Furphy IND 3.4 1.3 0.7
26 Enrique Freeman IND 2.1 1.0 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.