NBA games

LAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
92–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2522212492
MIN2627192193

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 20 6 11
Kevin Porter Jr. 24 17 7 3
Ivica Zubac S 34 16 13 1
Amir Coffey S 24 12 0 1
Nicolas Batum 24 12 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 24 6 1 0
Jordan Miller 11 3 3 1
Terance Mann 20 2 0 1
Mo Bamba 14 2 0 1
Kris Dunn S 27 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 21 4 3
Mike Conley S 33 13 2 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 12 10 1
Jaden McDaniels S 25 11 3 5
Julius Randle S 30 11 10 4
Donte DiVincenzo 22 9 2 5
Naz Reid 23 8 6 1
Rudy Gobert S 43 8 12 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Amir Coffey LAC
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.4 4.9 4.5
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.8 6.3 4.2
3 James Harden LAC 23.6 6.0 8.2
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.2 11.6 2.0
5 Naz Reid MIN 12.9 4.5 1.8
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 3.1 2.5
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 4.7 2.0
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.5 1.8
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.1 3.7 1.4
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.0 2.9 1.7
11 Mike Conley MIN 9.6 2.8 4.5
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.3 3.3 2.7
13 Kris Dunn LAC 8.5 3.5 3.3
14 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.5 2.8 3.1
15 Jordan Miller LAC 7.7 2.1 1.3
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 3.1 1.7
17 Luka Garza MIN 6.7 2.8 0.5
18 Daishen Nix MIN 6.4 1.6 1.4
19 Mo Bamba LAC 5.6 4.7 0.9
20 Bones Hyland LAC 5.1 2.0 0.9
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 2.5 0.9
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.5 1.3 1.5
23 Josh Minott MIN 3.3 1.5 0.5
24 Kai Jones LAC 3.1 2.3 0.5
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 0.9 0.9
26 PJ Dozier MIN 1.8 0.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.