NBA games

ORL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
123–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL33283527123
BKN29202229100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BKN
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 29 8 8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 29 19 2 3
Tristan da Silva 20 13 1 1
Jalen Suggs S 27 12 3 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 12 7 4
Jonathan Isaac 19 8 4 0
Jett Howard 16 8 2 0
Goga Bitadze S 27 8 6 3
Anthony Black 16 5 1 1
Cory Joseph 3 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shake Milton 34 22 2 4
Keon Johnson 28 15 6 1
Cameron Johnson S 29 14 3 4
Trendon Watford 20 13 3 1
Jalen Wilson S 31 11 2 1
Nic Claxton 26 8 7 2
Tyrese Martin S 25 8 2 1
Ziaire Williams S 21 5 3 0
Ben Simmons S 26 4 7 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Simmons · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Ben Simmons makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
6 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
8 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
10 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
20%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 27.1 5.6 7.0
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 18.0 4.2 3.0
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.6 3.9 3.5
4 Moritz Wagner ORL 14.4 4.8 2.1
5 Anthony Black ORL 10.5 3.1 4.8
6 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.5 3.6 1.6
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.0 7.4 1.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 9.6 7.5 2.4
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.5 3.4 1.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.4 2.7 2.4
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.2 4.3 1.4
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.4 4.1 1.8
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.2 7.3 1.8
14 Trendon Watford BKN 7.9 3.1 1.5
15 Ben Simmons BKN 7.6 5.8 6.3
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.9 6.3 0.8
17 Shake Milton BKN 5.5 1.6 1.9
18 Keon Johnson BKN 5.5 2.5 1.1
19 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.4 2.0 0.9
20 Cole Anthony ORL 5.0 1.9 1.2
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.6 0.9
22 Cory Joseph ORL 2.7 1.4 0.9
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.7 1.1 0.5
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.4 1.2 0.6
25 Yongxi Cui BKN 0.9 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.