NBA games

NO @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28282627109
MEM32352528120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home MEM
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 36 30 4 2
Trey Murphy III S 38 21 9 0
Dejounte Murray S 33 21 6 6
Yves Missi S 31 16 14 1
Brandon Boston 29 8 2 3
Javonte Green S 28 7 2 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 14 4 3 0
Elfrid Payton 15 2 3 3
Daniel Theis 17 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 29 27 3 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 23 8 1
Santi Aldama 27 20 6 4
Jaylen Wells S 22 13 6 3
Marcus Smart 26 11 4 6
Desmond Bane S 26 7 3 4
Jay Huff 17 7 1 0
Brandon Clarke S 22 4 11 2
Jake LaRavia 13 3 3 2
Luke Kennard 17 3 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Yves Missi · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Yves Missi makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
3 Yves Missi NO
9%
4 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
5 Ja Morant MEM
9%
6 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Brandon Boston NO
7%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Desmond Bane MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
37%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.7 6.4 2.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 23.4 5.4 9.1
3 Trey Murphy III NO 18.3 5.0 2.7
4 CJ McCollum NO 16.9 4.2 3.1
5 Desmond Bane MEM 14.9 7.1 4.1
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.3 4.8 5.4
7 Brandon Boston NO 14.2 4.9 4.8
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 7.1 3.4
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.0 3.3 2.2
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.9 3.6 1.7
11 Dejounte Murray NO 12.6 4.9 4.9
12 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 11.9 7.1 1.7
13 Yves Missi NO 10.3 8.0 1.3
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.3 4.5 3.8
15 Marcus Smart MEM 9.4 2.9 4.1
16 Javonte Green NO 8.8 3.7 1.4
17 Elfrid Payton NO 8.6 4.7 7.2
18 Luke Kennard MEM 8.5 2.8 3.3
19 Jay Huff MEM 8.4 3.1 1.0
20 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.2 5.8 1.1
21 Antonio Reeves NO 5.3 1.7 0.7
22 Daniel Theis NO 4.3 3.1 0.9
23 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.0 1.2
24 Trey Jemison III NO 4.0 3.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.