NBA games

CLE @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
101–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27232328101
ATL29233926117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ATL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 33 29 3 5
Evan Mobley S 37 24 12 3
Donovan Mitchell S 35 12 11 6
Caris LeVert 20 8 1 2
Ty Jerome 18 7 3 1
Sam Merrill 20 7 0 1
Jarrett Allen S 25 6 5 0
Georges Niang 20 3 1 2
Jaylon Tyson 11 3 3 0
Isaac Okoro S 18 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 28 23 5 3
Trae Young S 35 21 3 11
Jalen Johnson S 35 20 9 7
Onyeka Okongwu 22 15 7 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 11 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 10 6 1
Clint Capela S 25 8 13 1
Dyson Daniels S 35 7 7 4
Kobe Bufkin 13 2 0 3
David Roddy 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Trae Young ATL
9%
9 Darius Garland CLE
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.3 5.8 4.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.1 10.3 5.5
3 Darius Garland CLE 23.0 3.4 7.8
4 Trae Young ATL 23.0 3.3 11.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 20.3 10.6 3.2
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.7 6.1 3.8
7 Ty Jerome CLE 16.6 2.6 5.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.7 10.6 2.1
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.7 4.0 1.9
10 Caris LeVert CLE 12.1 3.2 4.4
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.3 3.3 2.1
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.2 10.1 1.7
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.8 3.9 1.7
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.7 6.9 1.7
15 Georges Niang CLE 9.9 3.9 1.4
16 Kobe Bufkin ATL 9.3 3.2 2.7
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.7 2.8 2.2
18 Sam Merrill CLE 7.3 2.6 1.5
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.7 1.2 1.3
20 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 5.4 2.1 1.0
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 1.8 1.6
22 David Roddy ATL 4.7 2.2 1.1
23 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.1 2.3 1.1
24 Vit Krejci ATL 4.0 1.4 1.4
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.