NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
100–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL25351822100
PHX31313629127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 35 25 15 5
LeBron James S 35 18 8 10
D'Angelo Russell 29 16 3 4
Austin Reaves S 31 15 3 2
Rui Hachimura S 23 7 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 17 7 4 0
Dalton Knecht 19 7 4 0
Gabe Vincent 14 3 2 1
Max Christie 14 2 0 1
Cam Reddish S 23 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 26 2 10
Kevin Durant S 30 23 6 2
Bradley Beal S 27 23 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 27 12 12 3
Grayson Allen 23 10 2 2
Royce O'Neale 24 9 9 1
Tyus Jones S 33 8 1 6
Oso Ighodaro 14 7 5 3
Ryan Dunn 15 5 4 1
Josh Okogie 3 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
40%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.9 10.9 3.5
2 LeBron James LAL 25.5 8.8 10.2
3 Devin Booker PHX 23.8 3.8 6.8
4 Kevin Durant PHX 23.6 6.5 4.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 18.8 3.0 6.0
6 Bradley Beal PHX 18.2 3.7 3.8
7 Dalton Knecht LAL 12.9 3.5 1.5
8 Tyus Jones PHX 12.7 2.7 6.1
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.8 5.6 1.8
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL 11.2 2.6 4.7
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 2.8 1.4
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.1 9.6 1.4
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.3 5.3 1.6
14 Josh Okogie PHX 7.6 3.3 1.0
15 Cam Reddish LAL 6.2 3.1 1.0
16 Max Christie LAL 5.5 2.0 1.0
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.5 2.8 1.0
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.3 5.7 1.7
19 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.8 1.5 0.9
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.7 3.6 0.7
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.6 3.5 0.7
22 Monte Morris PHX 4.0 1.2 0.8
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.9 2.7 0.6
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.8
25 Christian Koloko LAL 3.1 2.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.