NBA games

SA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
128–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32343032128
UTAH35312722115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home UTAH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 34 7 2
Stephon Castle S 29 23 3 5
Julian Champagnie S 36 15 3 2
Chris Paul S 28 14 1 4
Blake Wesley 22 11 3 4
Keldon Johnson 19 10 5 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 9 2 0
Harrison Barnes S 27 8 8 5
Tre Jones 19 2 3 7
Charles Bassey 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 34 26 3 7
Collin Sexton S 31 20 2 4
John Collins S 33 20 13 3
Brice Sensabaugh 27 16 0 0
Lauri Markkanen S 33 14 8 2
Drew Eubanks 14 9 3 2
Walker Kessler S 28 6 7 1
Johnny Juzang 23 3 3 1
Isaiah Collier 17 1 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Walker Kessler · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Walker Kessler makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
4 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 John Collins UTAH
10%
7 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
27%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.4 10.2 4.6
2 John Collins UTAH 21.2 10.3 3.3
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.3 5.7 2.6
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.0 3.3 3.9
5 Keyonte George UTAH 17.2 3.1 5.7
6 Stephon Castle SA 16.4 3.3 5.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 5.3 2.3
8 Harrison Barnes SA 12.1 5.1 1.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.7 4.6 2.0
10 Chris Paul SA 11.2 3.2 8.0
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.1 10.1 1.3
12 Zach Collins SA 8.6 3.8 2.1
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.6 1.5 1.2
14 Tre Jones SA 6.3 2.6 3.4
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.1 2.0 1.1
16 Malaki Branham SA 5.9 1.6 1.6
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.0 2.1 3.0
18 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 4.9 2.0 0.7
19 Drew Eubanks UTAH 4.8 4.8 1.0
20 Blake Wesley SA 4.4 1.1 1.7
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.8 0.7
22 Charles Bassey SA 4.2 4.1 0.4
23 Patty Mills UTAH 3.0 0.9 1.0
24 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.