NBA games

HOU @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
117–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU3225271815117
MIN262131249111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIN
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 45 27 8 11
Dillon Brooks S 41 22 3 2
Alperen Sengun S 42 22 10 11
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 19 7 3
Amen Thompson 38 15 8 0
Jalen Green S 23 9 3 2
Jock Landale 11 3 1 1
Tari Eason 18 0 3 0
Reed Sheppard 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 43 29 10 1
Julius Randle S 35 21 6 3
Naz Reid 27 19 7 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 13 2 3
Rob Dillingham 24 12 5 7
Jaden McDaniels S 40 9 5 2
Rudy Gobert S 44 5 16 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 21 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 4.9 4.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.8 6.4 4.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.7 10.5 5.2
4 Jalen Green HOU 16.6 4.9 2.6
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.5 4.8 6.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.2 7.3 2.5
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.4 3.5 1.9
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 4.4 1.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 7.5 1.5
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 4.7 1.7
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 11.2 1.8
12 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.2 5.5 1.0
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 10.2 3.2 3.4
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.1 2.9 2.1
15 Luka Garza MIN 6.4 2.9 0.5
16 Daishen Nix MIN 6.3 1.6 1.3
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.5 2.3 0.9
18 Leonard Miller MIN 5.2 4.0 0.8
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.6 1.1 1.5
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.4 1.6 1.3
21 Josh Minott MIN 4.1 1.9 0.7
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.2 0.8 1.0
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.1 3.2 0.9
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 0.9 0.4
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.4 1.0 0.9
26 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.2 0.9 0.3
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.1 1.8 0.4
28 PJ Dozier MIN 1.5 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.