NBA games

MIL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31342021106
MIA20312923103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIA
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 37 3 12
Brook Lopez S 30 13 2 3
Bobby Portis 18 11 6 1
Pat Connaughton 21 10 8 1
Taurean Prince S 31 10 3 0
AJ Green S 28 9 1 2
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 6 9 1
Delon Wright 17 5 5 3
MarJon Beauchamp 6 3 2 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 23 4 5
Tyler Herro S 40 18 5 5
Terry Rozier 21 17 3 0
Bam Adebayo S 31 16 5 5
Duncan Robinson S 31 11 5 5
Pelle Larsson 22 8 4 3
Kevin Love 7 2 4 0
Haywood Highsmith S 14 2 0 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 2 4 2
Kel'el Ware 9 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
4%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.4 11.8 8.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.7 4.0 7.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 23.4 5.5 5.5
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.0 5.9 5.3
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.2 10.0 4.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.1 7.3 1.8
7 Brook Lopez MIL 12.5 5.7 2.1
8 Terry Rozier MIA 11.3 3.5 3.1
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.0 5.4 2.6
10 Taurean Prince MIL 9.7 4.6 2.0
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.7 2.5 2.0
12 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.6 1.3
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.5 2.3 1.3
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.6 3.1 1.3
15 Alec Burks MIA 6.5 2.5 1.7
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.5 2.0 1.4
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.2 3.1 1.1
18 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.6 2.3 1.0
19 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.5 3.0 1.8
20 Kevin Love MIA 5.2 3.7 0.9
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.4 2.5 1.8
22 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.9 1.9 1.4
23 Josh Richardson MIA 3.9 1.3 1.1
24 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.0 1.8 0.4
25 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.2 0.6
26 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.8 1.1 0.8
27 AJ Johnson MIL 2.6 1.0 1.8
28 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.6 0.4
29 Stanley Umude MIL 2.1 1.2 0.5
30 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 1.9 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.