NBA games

CHI @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
127–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI21403531127
WSH29183427108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home WSH
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 31 21 8 2
Nikola Vucevic S 29 19 12 4
Zach LaVine S 31 18 1 4
Talen Horton-Tucker 16 13 1 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 30 12 3 3
Jalen Smith 18 12 9 2
Josh Giddey S 26 11 4 8
Matas Buzelis 17 9 4 0
Julian Phillips 22 8 5 1
E.J. Liddell 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 33 23 7 3
Alex Sarr S 31 20 7 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 23 15 6 4
Bub Carrington 25 10 3 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 37 8 3 5
Kyshawn George S 31 7 4 1
Corey Kispert 24 7 4 1
Anthony Gill 8 4 3 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 4 3 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Alexandre Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
15%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
9%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
8 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
9 Coby White CHI
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
32%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 24.1 4.6 5.3
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.3 9.4 3.4
3 Coby White CHI 20.6 3.8 5.8
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 18.3 6.0 2.8
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 14.4 6.5 3.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.2 3.4 4.6
7 Josh Giddey CHI 12.5 5.9 6.4
8 Corey Kispert WSH 12.2 3.4 1.9
9 Alex Sarr WSH 11.7 6.6 2.8
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.5 4.4 5.1
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.4 8.4 2.0
12 Kyshawn George WSH 11.0 4.2 3.2
13 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 11.0 3.5 2.1
14 Jalen Smith CHI 6.3 4.4 1.1
15 Dalen Terry CHI 6.1 2.1 1.4
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.3 2.3 1.8
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.2 2.8 0.8
18 Torrey Craig CHI 5.1 2.0 0.8
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.7 2.3 0.8
20 Jared Butler WSH 4.4 1.7 2.1
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.1 1.4 0.9
22 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.8 1.9 0.7
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.4 0.8
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.6 1.5 0.8
25 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.1 2.4 0.6
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.9 2.5 0.4
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.8 1.0 0.5
28 Johnny Davis WSH 2.6 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.