NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
88–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC1217352488
LAC26252528104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 43 29 7 7
Domantas Sabonis S 40 24 15 4
DeMar DeRozan S 36 16 6 2
Keegan Murray S 40 10 9 4
Colby Jones 6 5 0 0
Trey Lyles 18 3 4 0
Keon Ellis 16 1 0 1
Doug McDermott 3 0 1 0
Jordan McLaughlin 8 0 3 0
Kevin Huerter S 29 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 22 6 9
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 17 4 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 26 14 6 2
Amir Coffey S 24 11 2 2
Ivica Zubac S 31 10 15 4
Nicolas Batum 18 9 3 0
Mo Bamba 16 6 8 2
Kris Dunn S 27 5 8 4
Terance Mann 18 5 1 2
Jordan Miller 13 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 2-foot layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
4 James Harden LAC
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
9 Alex Len SAC
6%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
19%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.7 5.1 5.9
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.0 12.0 6.3
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.9 4.4 4.5
4 James Harden LAC 21.9 6.5 7.6
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.4 11.1 2.4
6 Keegan Murray SAC 12.3 7.4 1.4
7 Amir Coffey LAC 11.5 3.0 1.5
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.4 4.2 2.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.6 3.2 1.4
10 Kris Dunn LAC 9.3 2.9 3.1
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.3 2.9 3.4
12 Keon Ellis SAC 7.7 2.4 1.0
13 Jordan Miller LAC 7.7 2.2 1.1
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.9 3.8 1.0
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.2 3.3 1.5
16 Mo Bamba LAC 5.7 4.0 0.7
17 Kobe Brown LAC 4.9 3.3 1.1
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 2.2 0.8
19 Bones Hyland LAC 4.2 1.5 0.5
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 0.9 0.4
21 Cam Christie LAC 3.2 1.5 0.6
22 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.1 1.2 1.0
23 Alex Len SAC 2.0 2.3 0.6
24 Colby Jones SAC 1.6 0.8 0.6
25 Isaac Jones SAC 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.