NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
123–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL33402228123
DEN31223631120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall 26 26 1 1
P.J. Washington S 36 22 13 1
Kyrie Irving S 38 19 6 6
Quentin Grimes S 29 14 4 3
Daniel Gafford 27 13 6 1
Dereck Lively II S 20 11 6 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 16 10 2 4
Jaden Hardy 13 8 0 2
Maxi Kleber 11 0 2 2
Klay Thompson S 23 0 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 33 17 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 17 5 5
Christian Braun S 29 17 5 0
Russell Westbrook 27 16 1 4
Peyton Watson S 40 15 5 3
Jamal Murray S 39 14 5 11
Julian Strawther 17 3 0 0
DeAndre Jordan 5 3 1 0
Dario Saric 4 2 3 0
Hunter Tyson 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 8-foot two point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
15%
2 Christian Braun DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
9 Dario Saric DEN
7%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
6%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.3 12.6 10.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.5 5.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.2 6.0 3.0
4 Jamal Murray DEN 19.0 4.4 5.9
5 Christian Braun DEN 15.7 4.9 2.3
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.0 7.4 1.3
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.5 4.7 6.3
8 Naji Marshall DAL 13.4 4.1 3.1
9 Klay Thompson DAL 13.3 3.8 2.2
10 Peyton Watson DEN 11.3 3.9 1.5
11 P.J. Washington DAL 10.8 7.8 1.7
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.9 3.0 1.6
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.4 6.7 1.8
14 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.2 3.4 1.5
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.1 1.7 1.6
16 Dario Saric DEN 5.0 3.2 1.4
17 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 4.5 1.3 1.4
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 4.3 0.7
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.5 2.6 0.7
20 Trey Alexander DEN 3.0 1.4 1.2
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.6 0.6
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.7 0.9
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.3 1.6 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.1 1.2 0.6
25 Markieff Morris DAL 1.9 1.4 0.5
26 PJ Hall DEN 1.7 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.