NBA games

GS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34282525112
NO30332124108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NO
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 28 30 3 4
Stephen Curry S 33 19 7 7
Buddy Hield 19 12 6 0
Brandin Podziemski 21 11 5 3
Draymond Green S 30 11 8 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 18 9 8 0
Jonathan Kuminga 20 7 4 2
Kevon Looney 14 4 7 2
Gary Payton II 16 4 1 1
Moses Moody 20 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 24 4 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 23 19 12 1
Brandon Ingram S 36 18 3 7
Brandon Boston 35 16 5 7
Javonte Green S 20 15 4 2
Jordan Hawkins 20 6 1 0
Elfrid Payton S 26 4 3 4
Daniel Theis S 18 3 5 2
Trey Jemison III 12 2 4 0
Antonio Reeves 13 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
15%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
3 Brandon Boston NO
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Stephen Curry GS
9%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Elfrid Payton NO
7%
9 Javonte Green NO
6%
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 25.2 5.7 6.8
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 5.2 6.9
3 Trey Murphy III NO 17.1 5.1 2.1
4 Brandon Boston NO 16.4 5.0 5.1
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 16.0 4.2 2.1
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.4 4.8 2.2
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.9 3.7 1.7
8 Buddy Hield GS 14.0 4.0 1.8
9 Draymond Green GS 13.0 6.4 6.0
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 10.4 5.9 1.7
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.3 4.0 3.3
12 Yves Missi NO 8.7 7.7 1.8
13 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.2 5.7 2.0
14 Javonte Green NO 8.0 3.4 1.2
15 Moses Moody GS 7.5 2.5 1.3
16 Elfrid Payton NO 6.8 4.4 5.3
17 Kyle Anderson GS 6.5 3.2 2.6
18 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 2.4 1.4
19 Jamal Cain NO 6.0 3.4 1.2
20 Kevon Looney GS 5.8 7.3 1.5
21 Antonio Reeves NO 5.4 1.5 0.8
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.1 2.4 1.0
23 Trey Jemison III NO 3.5 3.2 0.9
24 Daniel Theis NO 3.0 2.7 0.8
25 Gui Santos GS 2.7 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.