NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
88–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2025281588
HOU31343120116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija 23 13 6 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 23 13 1 2
Toumani Camara S 26 11 3 3
Kris Murray 24 10 4 0
Donovan Clingan S 15 9 7 1
Anfernee Simons S 21 8 2 0
Robert Williams III 17 7 6 0
Jerami Grant S 27 5 3 5
Rayan Rupert 16 5 3 0
Taze Moore 12 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 25 28 6 1
Tari Eason 22 22 8 2
Jalen Green S 30 17 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 25 14 8 3
Amen Thompson 24 10 11 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 20 5 2 0
Jeff Green 7 5 1 0
Aaron Holiday 9 3 0 2
Jack McVeigh 4 3 2 1
Reed Sheppard 16 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shaedon Sharpe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Shaedon Sharpe makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Fred VanVleet HOU
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Jalen Green HOU
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 11.2 5.6
2 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.7 5.0 6.7
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.1 3.6 2.4
4 Jalen Green HOU 18.0 5.0 3.3
5 Jerami Grant POR 15.5 3.4 2.3
6 Anfernee Simons POR 15.5 2.5 3.8
7 Amen Thompson HOU 12.9 7.4 2.4
8 Deandre Ayton POR 12.4 9.6 1.2
9 Tari Eason HOU 12.4 7.6 1.6
10 Dalano Banton POR 12.2 3.1 2.9
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.0 5.7 1.2
12 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.9 3.2 1.8
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.5 5.6 2.0
14 Robert Williams III POR 10.5 6.6 1.7
15 Scoot Henderson POR 10.4 3.0 4.8
16 Deni Avdija POR 10.2 5.0 2.9
17 Donovan Clingan POR 6.2 6.5 0.8
18 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.5 2.0 1.7
19 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 3.3 1.0
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.4 1.2
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.3 2.2 0.9
22 Kris Murray POR 3.9 2.4 0.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.5 0.7
24 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 3.4 1.1
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.0 1.1 0.3
26 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.5 0.8 0.4
27 Jabari Walker POR 2.2 1.7 0.3
28 Taze Moore POR 2.2 1.0 0.5
29 Duop Reath POR 2.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.