NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
122–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25263338122
CHI28304137136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 37 25 13 5
Trae Young S 38 25 1 13
Clint Capela S 27 21 11 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 16 1 4
De'Andre Hunter 29 14 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 32 8 5 4
Onyeka Okongwu 21 7 6 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 16 4 1 1
Kobe Bufkin 10 2 2 1
Garrison Mathews 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 34 26 3 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 20 3 8
Coby White S 37 20 6 9
Josh Giddey S 33 18 6 8
Nikola Vucevic S 33 18 13 3
Jalen Smith 15 13 5 0
Dalen Terry 22 12 1 4
Matas Buzelis 20 9 4 0
Julian Phillips 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Clint Capela makes 3-foot hook shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Trae Young ATL
9%
8 Coby White CHI
9%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.2 10.3 6.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 23.2 4.9 5.4
3 Coby White CHI 22.0 3.4 5.8
4 Trae Young ATL 21.9 3.4 12.4
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.8 9.2 3.7
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.2 5.5 4.0
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 15.0 5.0 2.2
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.8 3.8 4.2
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.7 4.1 1.9
10 Kobe Bufkin ATL 12.3 3.6 3.4
11 Josh Giddey CHI 12.3 4.9 6.4
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.1 9.6 1.4
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.0 7.1 1.7
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 7.7 2.1 1.8
15 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 7.6 3.6 2.1
16 Dalen Terry CHI 6.3 2.5 1.5
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.2 2.4 1.1
18 David Roddy ATL 6.2 2.8 1.5
19 Jalen Smith CHI 6.0 4.1 1.2
20 Vit Krejci ATL 5.9 2.2 2.3
21 Torrey Craig CHI 5.4 2.1 0.9
22 Julian Phillips CHI 5.3 2.5 0.9
23 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.8 2.1 1.3
24 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.4 2.8 0.8
25 Chris Duarte CHI 4.0 1.5 0.9
26 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.4 1.0
27 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.1 2.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.