NBA games

IND @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
117–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22223538117
MIL34243536129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 25 8 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 33 20 9 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 18 1 9
Myles Turner S 33 15 8 1
T.J. McConnell 21 12 2 8
Quenton Jackson S 22 9 2 3
Obi Toppin 17 6 4 3
Jarace Walker 24 6 6 2
Tristen Newton 2 3 0 0
Johnny Furphy 14 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 37 10 11
Damian Lillard S 37 24 5 13
Gary Trent Jr. 29 18 2 1
Bobby Portis 23 17 7 1
Taurean Prince S 27 13 2 2
Brook Lopez S 33 11 5 3
AJ Green 23 5 3 0
Delon Wright 11 2 2 1
Chris Livingston 1 2 2 0
Stanley Umude 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 21-foot driving floating jump shot (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
95%
Jumper
1%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.5 10.8 10.1
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.9 4.1 7.5
3 Pascal Siakam IND 21.1 5.6 3.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.8 7.4 2.1
5 Myles Turner IND 17.4 7.1 1.7
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.2 3.6 9.4
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 7.3 1.6
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.8 5.6 1.9
9 Taurean Prince MIL 9.9 4.5 2.1
10 T.J. McConnell IND 9.6 2.9 4.4
11 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 3.5 1.5
12 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.5 1.3
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.7 2.3 1.2
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.1 4.3 1.8
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.4 2.7 1.8
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.1 2.0 1.4
17 Delon Wright MIL 4.7 2.3 1.9
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.7 2.0 1.5
19 Tristen Newton IND 4.3 1.4 2.5
20 Enrique Freeman IND 3.9 2.3 0.8
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.2 1.4 0.6
22 Stanley Umude MIL 3.1 1.4 0.6
23 Johnny Furphy IND 3.0 1.3 0.5
24 Tyler Smith MIL 2.7 1.5 0.4
25 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.7 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.