NBA games

BOS @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
108–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29202633108
WSH2724212496

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home WSH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 31 11 5
Jayson Tatum S 37 16 9 8
Jrue Holiday S 29 16 5 1
Sam Hauser 22 13 3 0
Derrick White S 36 10 2 3
Payton Pritchard 23 9 2 4
Neemias Queta S 18 7 2 0
Luke Kornet 24 6 6 1
Jordan Walsh 5 0 1 0
Xavier Tillman 9 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 33 23 2 8
Kyle Kuzma S 35 21 3 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 26 18 10 1
Jonas Valanciunas 19 11 10 1
Alex Sarr S 28 6 9 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 40 6 7 3
Corey Kispert 17 6 3 2
Kyshawn George 19 3 3 0
Bub Carrington 22 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
5 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
17%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 29.6 8.6 7.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.4 6.7 5.4
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.6 3.6 5.2
4 Derrick White BOS 19.7 5.1 5.1
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 17.0 6.1 2.7
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.7 2.9 3.3
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.2 5.7 2.5
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.1 4.5 4.9
9 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.0 7.6 2.3
10 Bub Carrington WSH 12.0 4.7 5.5
11 Al Horford BOS 11.4 6.0 2.3
12 Alex Sarr WSH 10.9 5.2 2.5
13 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 3.1 1.6
14 Kyshawn George WSH 10.3 4.3 2.8
15 Neemias Queta BOS 8.8 6.6 1.3
16 Sam Hauser BOS 7.3 3.4 1.5
17 Luke Kornet BOS 4.6 3.8 1.3
18 Jared Butler WSH 3.8 1.3 1.9
19 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.1 2.5 0.8
20 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.1 0.7
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.9 1.1 0.5
22 Johnny Davis WSH 2.7 1.4 0.5
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.5 1.2 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 2.1 0.7
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 0.7 0.7
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.3 2.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.