NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
104–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC35222027104
SA32283317110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 32 3 8
Jalen Williams S 34 27 10 5
Cason Wallace S 34 13 3 7
Aaron Wiggins S 20 11 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 32 6 12 2
Kenrich Williams 14 4 2 0
Dillon Jones 15 3 6 0
Ajay Mitchell 13 3 0 1
Adam Flagler 11 3 2 0
Alex Caruso 26 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 29 22 5 4
Harrison Barnes S 32 20 8 2
Chris Paul S 31 14 5 11
Julian Champagnie S 28 12 7 0
Charles Bassey 21 12 8 0
Zach Collins S 26 12 7 3
Stephon Castle S 35 10 3 8
Malaki Branham 15 3 1 3
Tre Jones 17 3 1 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes driving layup (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Chris Paul SA
11%
4 Stephon Castle SA
11%
5 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
8 Zach Collins SA
10%
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
6%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.0 6.6
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.3 6.2 4.9
3 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 5.4 1.9
4 Chris Paul SA 12.2 3.9 7.8
5 Stephon Castle SA 12.1 3.4 2.8
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.4 4.2 2.0
7 Julian Champagnie SA 10.9 5.1 1.8
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.3 3.9 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 9.1 3.7 1.7
10 Malaki Branham SA 7.7 1.7 1.3
11 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 3.1 1.6
12 Zach Collins SA 6.3 3.0 2.1
13 Tre Jones SA 6.2 2.5 4.0
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.7 1.7 1.7
15 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 3.0 0.9
16 Alex Caruso OKC 4.3 2.4 1.6
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.3 2.7 0.7
18 Blake Wesley SA 4.2 1.2 1.4
19 Dillon Jones OKC 3.6 2.2 0.9
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.6 2.4 0.9
21 Adam Flagler OKC 3.4 0.9 0.4
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.3 2.0 0.8
23 Charles Bassey SA 3.1 3.2 0.5
24 Branden Carlson OKC 2.5 1.5 0.5
25 Alex Ducas OKC 2.3 0.8 0.3
26 Malevy Leons OKC 2.1 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.