NBA games

NO @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
91–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2922182291
DAL44193435132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DAL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 29 19 5 1
Brandon Ingram S 33 17 5 4
Javonte Green S 30 14 5 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 25 11 7 1
Brandon Boston S 30 10 2 3
Antonio Reeves 7 9 0 0
Jaylen Nowell 21 4 0 4
Yves Missi S 23 3 9 4
Trey Jemison III 17 2 1 1
Jamal Cain 18 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 30 26 5 5
Klay Thompson S 24 19 4 1
Kyrie Irving S 27 18 1 7
Naji Marshall 20 15 0 3
Quentin Grimes 23 12 8 3
Jaden Hardy 19 11 2 3
Daniel Gafford 20 11 6 0
Dereck Lively II S 21 9 7 3
P.J. Washington S 25 4 6 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 4 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
8%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
6 Brandon Boston NO
8%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
7%
8 Yves Missi NO
7%
9 Quentin Grimes DAL
6%
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
73%
Jumper
7%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.5 6.8 8.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.8 5.7
3 Brandon Ingram NO 24.7 5.7 6.8
4 Trey Murphy III NO 14.9 5.0 1.9
5 Brandon Boston NO 14.1 4.9 4.3
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.6 6.9 1.3
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.5 3.4 2.2
8 Naji Marshall DAL 12.2 4.0 3.1
9 P.J. Washington DAL 10.7 7.6 1.7
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.6 6.8 2.1
11 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 8.6 5.2 1.4
12 Jaylen Nowell NO 7.4 2.5 1.6
13 Yves Missi NO 6.9 6.7 1.4
14 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.2 2.8 1.5
15 Javonte Green NO 6.1 3.2 1.2
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.8 1.7 1.5
17 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.2 1.6 1.7
18 Jamal Cain NO 4.8 3.2 0.7
19 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.9 2.1 0.8
20 Brandon Williams DAL 3.7 1.0 1.0
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.1 1.4 0.5
22 Daniel Theis NO 3.0 2.9 0.7
23 Trey Jemison III NO 2.8 3.2 0.7
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.6 0.9
25 Antonio Reeves NO 2.3 0.9 0.3
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 1.5 0.7
27 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.5 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.