NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
122–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31372430122
MEM24332132110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 36 27 4 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 24 11 3
Christian Braun S 34 19 7 2
Peyton Watson S 25 15 5 2
Russell Westbrook 32 12 10 14
Dario Saric S 18 8 5 1
Julian Strawther 20 6 5 0
Vlatko Cancar 11 5 4 0
DeAndre Jordan 8 4 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 6 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 33 28 11 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 19 8 1
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 25 16 6 6
Brandon Clarke S 21 10 4 2
Jake LaRavia 28 8 9 5
Jaylen Wells S 19 8 3 2
Luke Kennard 24 6 1 3
Jay Huff 13 6 1 0
Desmond Bane S 29 5 5 5
Vince Williams Jr. 7 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dario Saric · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Dario Saric makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Christian Braun DEN
12%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
8 Dario Saric DEN
9%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.7 6.1 2.1
2 Desmond Bane MEM 19.6 5.1 4.3
3 Jamal Murray DEN 18.8 4.1 5.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.3 5.8 2.9
5 Christian Braun DEN 15.7 4.8 2.2
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.7 3.5 2.2
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.4 3.9 5.4
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.0 4.0 5.4
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.7 6.6 3.3
10 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.7 4.4 4.3
11 Peyton Watson DEN 10.2 3.7 1.3
12 Julian Strawther DEN 9.8 2.8 1.6
13 Jay Huff MEM 7.6 2.9 0.9
14 Luke Kennard MEM 6.8 2.3 3.0
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.8 3.3 0.8
16 Dario Saric DEN 5.3 3.5 1.3
17 John Konchar MEM 5.0 3.9 1.2
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.9 0.8
19 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.8 1.6 1.0
20 Trey Alexander DEN 3.6 1.7 1.3
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.3 1.5 0.7
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 2.0 0.6
23 PJ Hall DEN 2.4 1.1 0.5
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.2 0.5 1.2
25 Colin Castleton MEM 1.9 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.