NBA games

CHA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
115–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA37222828115
BKN23313131116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home BKN
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 38 29 3 4
Miles Bridges S 33 21 3 2
Tre Mann 26 19 3 6
Grant Williams S 33 16 7 4
LaMelo Ball S 24 12 2 5
Tidjane Salaun 15 11 8 1
Cody Martin 25 4 6 2
Josh Green S 26 3 4 1
Moussa Diabate 16 0 7 0
Seth Curry 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 38 34 5 4
Jalen Wilson S 34 17 1 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 15 3 3
Dennis Schroder S 36 14 5 12
Trendon Watford 19 10 4 1
Ben Simmons S 26 10 9 5
Shake Milton 18 7 1 3
Noah Clowney 14 5 3 0
Ziaire Williams 17 4 2 2
Keon Johnson 10 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Josh Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
2 Dennis Schroder BKN
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Cameron Johnson BKN
10%
5 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
10%
6 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
7 Taj Gibson CHA
9%
8 Josh Green CHA
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
10 Grant Williams CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
28%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.5 4.7 7.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.3 3.4 3.9
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.8 4.1 3.1
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 17.3 3.4 5.6
5 Miles Bridges CHA 16.8 6.5 3.3
6 Brandon Miller CHA 16.7 4.1 3.8
7 Tre Mann CHA 13.9 3.3 3.4
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.5 4.2 2.0
9 Grant Williams CHA 11.0 5.4 2.5
10 Cody Martin CHA 10.0 3.8 2.2
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 4.7 1.3
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.0 3.5 1.9
13 Josh Green CHA 7.5 2.5 1.5
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 5.7 6.3
15 Noah Clowney BKN 6.7 2.9 1.1
16 Keon Johnson BKN 5.8 3.2 1.4
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.6 7.6 1.0
18 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.2 2.1 1.9
19 Seth Curry CHA 5.0 1.6 0.8
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.7 3.2 1.1
21 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.8 1.4 0.7
22 Shake Milton BKN 3.4 1.3 1.3
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.5 2.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.