NBA games

CLE @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE20284029117
BOS26392827120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home BOS
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 40 35 8 3
Evan Mobley S 38 22 11 6
Craig Porter Jr. 25 15 3 3
Georges Niang 30 11 4 3
Jarrett Allen S 28 10 11 2
Ty Jerome 28 10 1 5
Darius Garland S 31 8 2 7
Sam Merrill S 19 6 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 33 12 7
Al Horford S 32 20 7 1
Derrick White S 42 19 6 5
Jaylen Brown S 37 17 3 8
Payton Pritchard 26 13 2 3
Jrue Holiday S 28 11 5 4
Neemias Queta 16 5 4 2
Sam Hauser 21 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 16-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
10 Ty Jerome CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.2 7.8 6.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.1 6.7 4.4
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.5 5.1 4.2
4 Darius Garland CLE 23.3 3.6 7.5
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.0 9.1 2.6
6 Derrick White BOS 18.7 4.7 4.2
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.3 2.8 3.2
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.9 4.0 4.1
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.0 10.6 1.9
10 Al Horford BOS 10.7 5.3 2.2
11 Ty Jerome CLE 9.4 2.5 3.7
12 Georges Niang CLE 8.4 3.4 1.3
13 Neemias Queta BOS 7.9 6.4 1.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.4 3.3 1.3
15 Sam Merrill CLE 5.8 1.7 1.1
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.1 3.8 1.5
17 JT Thor CLE 4.1 2.2 0.5
18 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.9 2.2 0.9
19 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.9 1.6 0.8
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.9 1.5 0.6
21 Luke Travers CLE 2.8 2.3 0.8
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 1.9 0.5
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 2.1 0.6
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.2 0.9 0.4
25 Jaden Springer BOS 1.9 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.