NBA games

MIN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
130–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN3230361715130
SAC2727283311126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SAC
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 42 36 5 2
Julius Randle S 41 26 4 5
Naz Reid 24 16 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 37 14 6 3
Mike Conley S 37 14 4 7
Rudy Gobert S 41 11 11 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 10 3 3
Donte DiVincenzo 19 3 3 2
Rob Dillingham 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 44 60 3 7
Domantas Sabonis S 40 23 12 4
Keegan Murray S 45 14 10 2
Doug McDermott 16 8 3 1
Trey Lyles 41 7 8 1
Jordan McLaughlin 17 5 3 1
Kevin Huerter S 31 4 6 4
Keon Ellis 23 3 5 1
Alex Len S 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
2 Julius Randle MIN
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
44%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.0 5.7 4.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.3 5.1 4.1
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.3 6.7 4.3
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.5 12.0 7.0
5 Naz Reid MIN 13.8 4.6 1.7
6 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 7.6 1.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.9 9.9 1.8
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.3 3.8 2.2
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.1 1.6
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.8 3.6 3.5
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.1 2.8 2.9
12 Mike Conley MIN 8.0 2.9 4.5
13 Luka Garza MIN 6.9 3.2 0.4
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.7 2.7 1.3
15 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.7 1.5 2.8
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.2 3.3 0.9
17 Josh Minott MIN 5.1 2.3 0.8
18 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 1.2 0.5
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.3 1.9 1.1
20 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.2 1.3 1.1
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.0 1.8 0.8
22 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 1.1 0.8
23 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.1 0.8
24 Alex Len SAC 2.4 3.0 0.7
25 PJ Dozier MIN 1.8 0.6 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.