NBA games

MEM @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28203040118
GS29263830123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home GS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 32 6 1
Desmond Bane 27 18 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 27 16 4 2
Zach Edey 23 14 9 0
Vince Williams Jr. 24 9 5 4
Marcus Smart 20 9 5 6
Jake LaRavia 17 7 3 2
Santi Aldama S 16 4 3 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 22 3 2 4
Jay Huff 6 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield 30 18 4 2
Moses Moody 16 14 3 1
Draymond Green S 30 13 8 7
Andrew Wiggins S 21 13 2 1
Stephen Curry S 26 13 8 5
Brandin Podziemski 28 11 7 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 18 9 6 2
Lindy Waters III S 11 8 0 1
Kyle Anderson 19 8 4 4
Jonathan Kuminga 18 8 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
10 Jay Huff MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
16%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 22.1 4.6 6.5
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.9 6.0 1.8
3 Desmond Bane MEM 17.6 4.2 3.3
4 Buddy Hield GS 15.5 3.9 2.2
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.9 4.5 2.1
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.7 4.6 6.0
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.5 4.4 2.5
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.7 7.9 3.9
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.2 3.7 1.9
10 Zach Edey MEM 11.5 7.2 1.2
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 11.1 5.4 3.8
12 Draymond Green GS 10.0 4.8 4.8
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.9 4.2 3.3
14 Jay Huff MEM 8.3 3.1 0.9
15 Moses Moody GS 7.4 2.1 1.1
16 Marcus Smart MEM 6.9 2.4 3.4
17 Luke Kennard MEM 6.3 2.1 2.9
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.2 4.6 1.9
19 John Konchar MEM 5.6 4.3 1.4
20 Kyle Anderson GS 5.2 3.1 2.0
21 Kevon Looney GS 5.2 7.0 1.3
22 Brandon Clarke MEM 4.3 2.6 0.5
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.1 1.7 0.9
24 Lindy Waters III GS 3.8 1.4 0.9
25 Pat Spencer GS 1.6 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.