NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
83–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX1422242383
OKC2919351699

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Okogie S 30 15 9 1
Devin Booker S 34 12 4 4
Royce O'Neale 22 11 7 3
Ryan Dunn S 25 9 5 0
Monte Morris 20 9 3 1
Tyus Jones S 30 7 3 3
Oso Ighodaro 27 6 7 2
Bol Bol 5 5 2 1
Damion Lee 5 5 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 4 8 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 28 6 4
Luguentz Dort S 32 15 9 2
Jalen Williams S 30 14 8 3
Isaiah Joe S 22 11 5 2
Aaron Wiggins 20 8 1 2
Ousmane Dieng 22 7 5 1
Ajay Mitchell 23 7 4 3
Cason Wallace S 27 5 4 3
Kenrich Williams 15 2 6 1
Dillon Jones 8 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Okogie · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Josh Okogie makes driving dunk (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
4 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
5 Royce O'Neale PHX
9%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
7 Isaiah Joe OKC
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
52%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.1 5.4 6.7
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.0 4.1 7.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.3 6.6 5.5
4 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.7 4.0 1.9
5 Tyus Jones PHX 11.3 3.1 5.7
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 6.7 2.0
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.0 3.8 2.2
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.7 10.1 1.6
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.1 3.3 1.6
10 Josh Okogie PHX 8.0 3.1 1.0
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.5 3.2 1.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.3 2.9 1.0
13 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.9 1.8 1.7
14 Monte Morris PHX 5.6 1.9 1.7
15 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.5 5.8 1.3
16 Bol Bol PHX 5.2 3.9 1.0
17 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.9 1.9 0.7
18 Adam Flagler OKC 4.5 1.4 0.8
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.2 3.7 0.6
20 Damion Lee PHX 4.2 1.5 0.9
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.1 2.5 1.0
22 Malevy Leons OKC 3.2 2.0 0.6
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.9 2.0 0.7
24 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.6 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.