NBA games

DEN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
94101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2232182294
NO32271923101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NO
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 24 6 3
Peyton Watson S 29 18 5 0
Jamal Murray S 43 16 6 8
Christian Braun S 37 15 4 3
Dario Saric S 34 9 8 5
Julian Strawther 20 5 3 0
Russell Westbrook 22 5 4 7
Vlatko Cancar 8 2 2 0
Hunter Tyson 2 0 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 29 9 7
Brandon Boston S 38 19 4 4
Trey Murphy III S 30 17 8 3
Javonte Green S 26 9 2 0
Jaylen Nowell 24 7 5 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 6 8 2
Trey Jemison III 15 6 3 1
Yves Missi S 29 6 12 0
Jamal Cain 20 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
17%
2 Christian Braun DEN
15%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
4 Yves Missi NO
12%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
6 Javonte Green NO
10%
7 Brandon Boston NO
10%
8 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
10 Dario Saric DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
40%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.0 5.9 6.6
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.3 6.2 3.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 17.8 3.5 4.5
4 Christian Braun DEN 16.2 5.3 1.7
5 Jordan Hawkins NO 15.5 3.8 1.7
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.5 3.9 5.4
7 Brandon Boston NO 12.4 3.9 3.6
8 Julian Strawther DEN 8.7 2.2 1.5
9 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.2 1.1
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 7.3 3.6 1.3
11 Yves Missi NO 7.2 6.5 1.5
12 Jaylen Nowell NO 6.4 1.7 1.5
13 Javonte Green NO 6.3 3.4 1.3
14 Jamal Cain NO 5.6 2.7 0.9
15 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.8 4.6 0.8
16 Dario Saric DEN 3.6 2.2 0.8
17 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.6 1.4 0.6
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.4 2.7 0.8
19 PJ Hall DEN 3.4 1.2 0.8
20 Daniel Theis NO 3.4 3.2 0.9
21 Antonio Reeves NO 3.3 1.4 0.7
22 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.1 1.1 1.0
23 Trey Alexander DEN 2.9 1.3 1.3
24 Trey Jemison III NO 2.9 3.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.