NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC21252929104
HOU29372831125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 31 21 6 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 25 15 3 3
Kris Dunn S 19 13 2 2
Jordan Miller 10 11 2 1
Amir Coffey 27 10 4 3
Norman Powell S 29 8 2 1
Bones Hyland 8 7 1 0
Ivica Zubac S 30 6 11 0
Kobe Brown 10 5 4 0
Kai Jones 11 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 28 11 1
Fred VanVleet S 33 18 7 10
Dillon Brooks S 33 17 1 2
Tari Eason 22 17 6 1
Alperen Sengun S 33 16 10 10
Amen Thompson 25 12 5 3
Jalen Green S 22 8 5 1
Aaron Holiday 9 6 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 3 3 2 0
Jack McVeigh 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Norman Powell LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 22.1 7.5 7.9
2 Norman Powell LAC 21.9 3.9 3.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.1 4.8 3.9
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.2 10.6 4.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.7 11.3 2.3
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.2 4.0 5.5
7 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 6.1 1.7
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.7 3.8 1.5
9 Amen Thompson HOU 11.5 6.6 2.0
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.0 3.6 1.4
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 10.6 5.5 1.0
12 Amir Coffey LAC 9.3 2.3 1.1
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.3 3.1 2.6
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.8 3.4 3.1
15 Jordan Miller LAC 7.3 2.1 1.2
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 3.6 1.4
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.5 2.2 0.9
18 Kobe Brown LAC 5.0 3.7 1.3
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.8 2.7 1.4
20 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 3.0 0.8
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.8 1.5 1.3
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.5 0.8 0.8
23 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 4.2 1.2
24 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.7 1.1 0.4
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.5 1.0 0.4
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.3 1.9 0.5
27 Kai Jones LAC 2.0 1.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.