NBA games

LAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
120–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31372527120
SA30302629115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 40 12 2
Austin Reaves S 32 19 3 6
LeBron James S 38 15 16 12
Dalton Knecht S 26 14 3 0
D'Angelo Russell 30 13 2 6
Max Christie 30 11 3 1
Gabe Vincent 20 6 2 0
Christian Koloko 10 2 0 0
Cam Reddish S 19 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 28 14 5
Stephon Castle S 33 22 2 5
Devin Vassell 22 15 0 5
Keldon Johnson 27 12 4 1
Chris Paul S 29 11 2 11
Julian Champagnie S 31 10 8 2
Harrison Barnes S 27 8 4 0
Zach Collins 14 6 3 2
Malaki Branham 6 3 1 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 3-foot two point shot (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
17%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 Julian Champagnie SA
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 Chris Paul SA
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
8 Stephon Castle SA
8%
9 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
3%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 28.9 11.1 3.5
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.2 11.4 4.0
3 LeBron James LAL 26.0 8.2 9.1
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.8 4.1 5.5
5 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 2.7 3.6
6 Chris Paul SA 13.4 3.7 8.6
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.3 2.7 4.5
8 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 5.7 1.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 4.7 1.9
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.2 3.7 1.8
11 Stephon Castle SA 10.2 3.0 2.8
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.3 2.2 1.4
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.9 2.1 1.2
14 Zach Collins SA 6.3 2.7 2.3
15 Cam Reddish LAL 5.8 3.1 1.0
16 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 1.4 1.8
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.7 1.5 0.8
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.3 2.3 0.8
19 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.9 1.9 1.0
20 Charles Bassey SA 3.6 2.5 0.6
21 Max Christie LAL 3.4 1.6 0.7
22 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 2.0 0.5
23 Armel Traore LAL 2.9 2.9 0.2
24 Bronny James LAL 2.3 1.1 0.3
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.