NBA games

CHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
126–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI34392924126
CLE49283037144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CLE
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 30 29 1 3
Nikola Vucevic S 33 25 8 2
Patrick Williams S 34 17 3 9
Ayo Dosunmu 26 15 5 4
Matas Buzelis 8 9 2 0
Zach LaVine S 37 8 4 9
Jalen Smith 14 6 3 1
Dalen Terry 18 6 1 2
Josh Giddey S 15 5 3 1
Julian Phillips 21 4 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 37 7 4
Darius Garland S 34 29 3 9
Jarrett Allen S 37 24 10 3
Caris LeVert 26 22 3 8
Georges Niang S 25 14 8 0
Ty Jerome 19 7 4 4
Dean Wade 29 5 3 1
Isaac Okoro S 26 4 1 3
Tristan Thompson 5 2 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
12%
4 Patrick Williams CHI
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
11%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
8 Coby White CHI
10%
9 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.3 4.8 4.7
2 Darius Garland CLE 24.2 3.4 7.0
3 Zach LaVine CHI 22.9 5.5 4.1
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.7 10.1 3.6
5 Coby White CHI 19.6 3.4 5.1
6 Josh Giddey CHI 14.3 6.1 6.4
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.2 4.3 3.8
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.6 11.5 2.0
9 Caris LeVert CLE 11.5 3.5 4.8
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.5 5.5 1.9
11 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.2 3.2
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.2 4.5 0.8
13 Georges Niang CLE 7.1 3.1 1.5
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.0 2.3 1.5
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.7 1.8
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.1 2.0 1.4
17 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.3 1.1
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 2.0 0.6
19 JT Thor CLE 3.7 2.0 0.4
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.6 1.9 0.7
21 Matas Buzelis CHI 3.3 2.3 0.5
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.2 1.7 0.9
23 Chris Duarte CHI 2.8 1.2 0.5
24 Jevon Carter CHI 2.6 0.8 0.4
25 Torrey Craig CHI 2.5 1.0 0.3
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 1.7 0.4
27 Luke Travers CLE 2.3 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.