NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH39112542117
ATL29303535129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 29 24 9 1
Jordan Poole S 29 22 5 6
Alex Sarr S 31 20 7 2
Corey Kispert 32 16 5 2
Kyshawn George 20 13 5 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 38 9 9 4
Bub Carrington S 37 7 5 9
Jonas Valanciunas 17 6 5 0
Johnny Davis 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 36 25 4 3
De'Andre Hunter 21 22 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 18 13 7
Trae Young S 33 18 2 9
Onyeka Okongwu 26 13 13 0
Garrison Mathews 12 12 0 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 11 2 2
Clint Capela S 22 10 13 1
Larry Nance Jr. 13 0 2 1
Keaton Wallace 15 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Clint Capela makes 7-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
14%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL
7%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
10 Kyle Kuzma WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
19%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.1 3.6 11.7
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.8 3.2 5.8
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.6 11.3 6.3
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 17.2 5.8 3.1
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.5 5.2 3.4
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.6 5.5 3.2
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.9 5.1 2.0
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 13.5 8.0 2.8
9 Clint Capela ATL 12.2 8.1 1.5
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.8 4.4 5.5
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.8 3.0 1.8
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.8 6.3 2.0
13 Kyshawn George WSH 11.0 4.5 2.7
14 Alex Sarr WSH 10.9 6.3 2.2
15 De'Andre Hunter ATL 9.9 3.2 1.8
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.7 2.1 2.0
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.4 3.4 1.6
18 David Roddy ATL 6.9 3.6 1.9
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.8 2.0 1.9
20 Jared Butler WSH 5.7 1.5 3.1
21 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.8 3.0 0.9
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Johnny Davis WSH 3.7 1.5 0.9
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.9 2.3 0.4
25 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.9 2.0 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.