NBA games

DET @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
99–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET3223182699
TOR2725261795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home TOR
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 30 20 3 0
Cade Cunningham S 36 15 6 10
Jaden Ivey S 28 14 2 5
Jalen Duren S 24 12 8 1
Tobias Harris S 28 11 11 3
Ronald Holland II 21 10 8 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 30 8 6 2
Marcus Sasser 17 6 5 2
Isaiah Stewart 24 3 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 35 25 18 3
RJ Barrett S 35 22 6 7
Gradey Dick S 35 16 5 0
Ochai Agbaji S 36 9 3 1
Jamison Battle 14 9 1 0
Davion Mitchell S 33 5 6 5
Jamal Shead 10 4 1 1
Bruno Fernando 10 3 2 1
Chris Boucher 14 2 7 1
Jonathan Mogbo 16 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 Malik Beasley DET
9%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Jaden Ivey DET
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Jalen Duren DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
48%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.8 8.0 9.1
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.0 5.5 5.4
3 Gradey Dick TOR 20.8 3.5 3.3
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.7 5.1 4.3
5 Tobias Harris DET 15.8 7.7 2.8
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.7 11.4 3.1
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.8 2.7 5.4
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 14.0 4.6 2.2
9 Malik Beasley DET 13.8 3.1 2.4
10 Chris Boucher TOR 10.2 4.5 1.1
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.1 3.2 5.9
12 Jalen Duren DET 9.6 9.5 2.8
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.3 8.2 1.8
14 Ronald Holland II DET 6.2 2.5 0.8
15 Cole Swider DET 5.7 2.6 1.0
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.2 2.4 0.9
17 Jamal Shead TOR 5.1 1.3 3.1
18 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.7 3.7 1.3
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.6 2.3 0.6
20 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 1.3 1.7
21 Paul Reed DET 4.2 2.7 1.0
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.8 3.7 0.8
23 Daniss Jenkins DET 3.0 1.1 0.8
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.