NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
86–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2124271486
ORL2419302598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain S 31 29 1 4
Joel Embiid S 33 20 8 2
Paul George S 36 13 4 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. 26 5 4 0
Kyle Lowry S 28 4 0 3
Guerschon Yabusele 24 4 2 1
KJ Martin 1 3 0 0
Caleb Martin S 33 3 5 1
Eric Gordon 16 2 2 1
Andre Drummond 4 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 41 31 11 6
Jalen Suggs S 34 19 7 3
Moritz Wagner 20 14 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 25 11 9 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 8 1 1
Tristan da Silva S 18 6 3 0
Anthony Black 20 4 1 1
Jett Howard 1 3 1 0
Goga Bitadze S 27 2 4 1
Caleb Houstan 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Paul George PHI
11%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Jared McCain PHI
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Caleb Martin PHI
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
20%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 22.4 5.3 5.4
2 Paul George PHI 19.7 5.3 4.4
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.3 5.2 5.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.9 5.0 1.6
5 Jared McCain PHI 13.4 2.5 2.4
6 Caleb Martin PHI 12.4 5.2 2.8
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 4.4 1.6
8 Andre Drummond PHI 9.7 9.3 1.2
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.0 5.0 1.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.8 3.2 2.1
11 Anthony Black ORL 8.5 3.7 4.1
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.8 3.7 1.8
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.4 7.0 1.4
14 Kyle Lowry PHI 7.0 2.7 3.1
15 Eric Gordon PHI 6.0 1.6 1.3
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 4.3 0.8
17 KJ Martin PHI 5.6 2.8 0.8
18 Cole Anthony ORL 4.9 2.4 1.6
19 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.3 1.6
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.6 0.7
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.6 1.2
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.0 1.5 0.7
23 Gary Harris ORL 3.9 1.8 0.8
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.7 1.3 0.9
25 Adem Bona PHI 2.6 2.0 0.4
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.2 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.