NBA games

MIA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
124–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA26353726124
IND29263026111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home IND
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 39 30 11 7
Tyler Herro S 34 20 3 5
Kevin Love S 12 15 7 2
Haywood Highsmith S 25 14 1 1
Nikola Jovic 30 11 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 10 3 5
Terry Rozier S 23 10 2 2
Duncan Robinson 23 8 1 2
Josh Richardson 25 6 1 2
Kel'el Ware 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Obi Toppin 21 21 3 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 29 18 2 8
T.J. McConnell 17 14 3 4
Pascal Siakam S 30 14 5 2
Jarace Walker 25 11 7 4
Myles Turner S 28 9 5 2
Ben Sheppard S 29 8 4 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 29 8 4 1
Quenton Jackson 10 6 2 1
Enrique Freeman 13 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Haywood Highsmith · Layup (2 pts) · 9:41 Q1
"Haywood Highsmith makes layup (Kevin Love assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
5 Myles Turner IND
9%
6 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
6%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
39%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.9 5.2 5.4
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.2 6.1 4.0
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.7 6.5 2.4
4 Myles Turner IND 18.2 6.9 2.1
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.0 4.1 8.6
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.1 4.9 4.3
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.8 9.2 3.9
8 Terry Rozier MIA 14.3 4.5 4.1
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.4 5.6 2.7
10 T.J. McConnell IND 9.0 3.0 3.9
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.9 3.4 1.0
12 Obi Toppin IND 8.6 3.3 1.5
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.2 3.3 1.3
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 7.1 2.3 1.5
15 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.8 1.9 3.3
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.6 2.4 1.3
17 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.6 2.5 1.0
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.7 3.0 1.3
19 Alec Burks MIA 4.8 1.7 1.3
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.8 1.5 1.4
21 Enrique Freeman IND 4.4 3.0 0.9
22 Josh Richardson MIA 4.3 1.7 1.1
23 Quenton Jackson IND 4.2 1.5 1.3
24 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.1 2.6 0.5
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.8 1.7 0.7
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 2.6 0.6
27 Johnny Furphy IND 2.8 1.5 0.5
28 Dru Smith MIA 2.5 1.3 1.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.