NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
108–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN17362134108
POR28323329122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 34 28 6 1
Anthony Edwards S 37 26 0 3
Jaden McDaniels S 36 17 6 2
Julius Randle S 29 11 6 2
Rudy Gobert S 33 9 8 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 8 0 2
Mike Conley S 24 6 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo 18 3 2 1
Josh Minott 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 39 21 2 8
Robert Williams III 25 19 9 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 17 3 3
Deni Avdija 25 17 4 5
Toumani Camara S 38 14 4 3
Scoot Henderson 21 14 4 2
Dalano Banton 24 12 4 5
Donovan Clingan S 21 4 6 0
Rayan Rupert 9 2 2 1
Anfernee Simons S 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
29%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
9%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Mike Conley MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
48%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
16%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.8 4.3
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.2 6.6 5.2
3 Anfernee Simons POR 19.3 2.7 5.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 16.9 4.3 1.9
5 Naz Reid MIN 13.8 5.4 2.0
6 Deandre Ayton POR 13.4 10.0 1.4
7 Scoot Henderson POR 12.5 3.0 4.8
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.2 3.7 4.0
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.1 10.9 1.9
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.4 3.6 1.6
11 Deni Avdija POR 9.7 5.4 3.2
12 Toumani Camara POR 9.5 4.5 2.0
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.3 2.9 2.6
14 Mike Conley MIN 8.7 3.1 4.5
15 Shaedon Sharpe POR 8.7 2.7 1.3
16 Luka Garza MIN 7.8 3.5 0.6
17 Dalano Banton POR 7.3 1.9 1.7
18 Josh Minott MIN 7.0 3.2 0.7
19 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 4.9 0.6
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.3 1.3 2.9
21 Kris Murray POR 5.0 2.4 0.9
22 Rayan Rupert POR 4.7 1.8 0.6
23 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Jabari Walker POR 3.4 2.4 0.5
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.2 1.4 1.1
26 PJ Dozier MIN 2.4 0.8 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 1.0 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.