NBA games

DAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
117–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27362628117
GS33263724120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 31 8 6
Klay Thompson S 34 22 4 3
Kyrie Irving S 36 21 3 6
Daniel Gafford S 24 15 6 2
Dereck Lively II 24 12 8 2
Quentin Grimes 29 6 6 1
Naji Marshall S 22 6 3 2
Jaden Hardy 19 4 2 4
Spencer Dinwiddie 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 37 6 9
Jonathan Kuminga 28 16 5 1
De'Anthony Melton S 26 14 4 4
Buddy Hield 21 14 1 0
Draymond Green S 32 11 7 6
Andrew Wiggins S 34 8 3 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 14 8 9 2
Kevon Looney 15 5 11 2
Moses Moody 12 4 2 0
Brandin Podziemski 17 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
2 Klay Thompson DAL
12%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
7 Stephen Curry GS
9%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.5 7.8 7.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.2 4.8 4.9
3 Stephen Curry GS 19.7 4.3 6.3
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.2 4.4 2.4
5 Buddy Hield GS 15.0 4.4 2.4
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 14.6 4.6 2.3
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.4 3.9 2.0
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.7 4.8 3.6
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.5 6.6 1.2
10 Draymond Green GS 10.1 5.1 5.1
11 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.7 3.1 3.1
12 Naji Marshall DAL 8.4 3.8 2.3
13 Moses Moody GS 8.1 2.2 1.3
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.7 4.3 1.9
15 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.4 6.7 1.6
16 Kyle Anderson GS 6.1 3.7 2.3
17 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.6 1.6 1.6
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 2.0 1.2
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.9 6.8 1.1
20 Lindy Waters III GS 4.4 1.6 1.0
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.3 1.3 1.1
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 1.9 0.5
23 Quentin Grimes DAL 3.0 2.3 0.6
24 Brandon Williams DAL 3.0 0.8 0.7
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 2.5 0.7
26 Gui Santos GS 1.9 1.0 0.4
27 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.