TOR @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
85–99
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 21 | 22 | 24 | 18 | 85 |
| MIL | 26 | 28 | 27 | 18 | 99 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR
away
home
MIL
36%
64%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gradey Dick S | 38 | 32 | 5 | 3 |
| Jakob Poeltl S | 28 | 13 | 8 | 1 |
| Chris Boucher | 20 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
| Bruno Fernando | 18 | 8 | 13 | 2 |
| Ochai Agbaji S | 35 | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| RJ Barrett S | 31 | 7 | 7 | 2 |
| Jamison Battle | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Davion Mitchell S | 33 | 1 | 4 | 8 |
| Jamal Shead | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Garrett Temple | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Brook Lopez ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 1-foot driving dunk (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jakob Poeltl
TOR
14%
2
RJ Barrett
TOR
14%
3
Immanuel Quickley
TOR
14%
4
Gradey Dick
TOR
13%
5
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
11%
6
Ochai Agbaji
TOR
11%
7
Brook Lopez
MIL
8%
8
Andre Jackson Jr.
MIL
8%
9
Taurean Prince
MIL
8%
10
Davion Mitchell
TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 31.2 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| 2 | RJ Barrett | TOR | 24.2 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| 3 | Gradey Dick | TOR | 19.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| 4 | Jakob Poeltl | TOR | 17.0 | 11.8 | 3.4 |
| 5 | Immanuel Quickley | TOR | 15.4 | 2.9 | 5.7 |
| 6 | Ochai Agbaji | TOR | 15.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| 7 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 13.2 | 8.0 | 1.4 |
| 8 | Davion Mitchell | TOR | 11.1 | 3.3 | 5.9 |
| 9 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| 10 | Chris Boucher | TOR | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.1 |
| 11 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 8.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 12 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 13 | AJ Green | MIL | 6.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 14 | Jamal Shead | TOR | 6.3 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| 15 | Jonathan Mogbo | TOR | 5.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 16 | Jamison Battle | TOR | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 18 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 19 | Bruno Fernando | TOR | 4.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 21 | AJ Johnson | MIL | 3.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 22 | Tyler Smith | MIL | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 23 | Delon Wright | MIL | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 24 | MarJon Beauchamp | MIL | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Stanley Umude | MIL | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 26 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.