NBA games

TOR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
8599
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2122241885
MIL2628271899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gradey Dick S 38 32 5 3
Jakob Poeltl S 28 13 8 1
Chris Boucher 20 12 5 0
Bruno Fernando 18 8 13 2
Ochai Agbaji S 35 8 7 1
RJ Barrett S 31 7 7 2
Jamison Battle 12 4 1 1
Davion Mitchell S 33 1 4 8
Jamal Shead 12 0 1 2
Garrett Temple 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 23 4 7
Bobby Portis 18 17 8 0
Brook Lopez S 37 13 7 3
Ryan Rollins S 22 12 5 3
AJ Green S 30 12 5 3
Taurean Prince S 22 9 7 2
Pat Connaughton 20 6 4 2
Tyler Smith 2 3 1 0
Delon Wright 24 2 3 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 18 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 1-foot driving dunk (AJ Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
14%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR
14%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
13%
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
11%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
8%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
27%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.2 11.1 6.3
2 RJ Barrett TOR 24.2 5.5 6.2
3 Gradey Dick TOR 19.8 3.2 3.0
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.0 11.8 3.4
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.4 2.9 5.7
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR 15.0 4.8 2.2
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 8.0 1.4
8 Davion Mitchell TOR 11.1 3.3 5.9
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.4 4.8 1.7
10 Chris Boucher TOR 10.1 4.7 1.1
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.5 1.7 1.1
12 Taurean Prince MIL 8.2 4.5 2.0
13 AJ Green MIL 6.4 1.5 1.1
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.6 3.6
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 5.7 4.8 1.8
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.5 2.8 1.0
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 2.2 1.7
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.3 2.5 1.5
19 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.1 3.5 0.9
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 3.8 1.6 1.0
21 AJ Johnson MIL 3.4 1.1 2.0
22 Tyler Smith MIL 2.9 2.5 0.4
23 Delon Wright MIL 2.8 1.0 0.8
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.7 1.0 0.5
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.1 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.