NBA games

NY @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27272433111
PHI2525252499

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 41 24 6 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 21 13 6
Jalen Brunson S 35 18 3 5
Miles McBride 26 15 3 2
Josh Hart S 37 14 12 10
Mikal Bridges S 35 14 4 3
Cameron Payne 9 3 3 3
Jericho Sims 10 2 3 0
Matt Ryan 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 32 29 10 3
Jared McCain 30 23 3 2
Caleb Martin S 36 17 2 3
Joel Embiid S 26 13 3 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 29 5 6 1
Andre Drummond 18 5 4 1
Kyle Lowry S 26 4 3 2
Guerschon Yabusele 19 3 8 0
Adem Bona 1 0 0 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 22 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Paul George makes 3-foot layup (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Paul George PHI
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
46%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.0 3.3 6.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.0 11.3 3.1
3 Paul George PHI 16.8 4.7 5.0
4 OG Anunoby NY 16.1 4.7 2.9
5 Mikal Bridges NY 15.5 4.0 3.7
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 4.5 1.9
7 Josh Hart NY 14.6 8.4 5.0
8 Miles McBride NY 12.0 2.9 2.8
9 Caleb Martin PHI 11.3 5.6 3.0
10 Andre Drummond PHI 10.6 10.0 1.3
11 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.6 4.2 1.9
12 Jared McCain PHI 8.7 2.5 1.6
13 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.2 2.8 3.5
14 Cameron Payne NY 7.8 2.0 3.0
15 Eric Gordon PHI 6.3 1.6 1.5
16 KJ Martin PHI 6.2 3.3 1.0
17 Tyler Kolek NY 5.4 1.7 1.8
18 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.0 1.7 1.7
19 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.7 1.6 1.0
20 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.3 1.6 0.4
21 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.4 1.0 1.6
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.0 3.5 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 2.5 0.3
24 Adem Bona PHI 2.0 1.4 0.5
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.