NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
89–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2918192389
ORL31273125114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 35 35 6 7
Grant Williams S 31 15 4 1
Moussa Diabate 30 12 15 2
Cody Martin 19 8 3 0
Brandon Miller S 38 8 3 7
Taj Gibson S 14 4 4 0
Vasilije Micic 14 4 3 1
Tidjane Salaun 21 3 6 1
Nick Smith Jr. 2 0 0 1
Josh Green S 29 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 32 32 8 5
Moritz Wagner 24 18 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 28 17 4 4
Goga Bitadze S 20 9 2 2
Anthony Black 25 8 5 3
Jonathan Isaac 14 7 4 1
Cole Anthony 10 6 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 25 6 1 3
Tristan da Silva S 32 5 6 2
Trevelin Queen 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
4 Taj Gibson CHA
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
10%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
8 Tidjane Salaun CHA
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 LaMelo Ball CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.3 5.1 6.7
2 Franz Wagner ORL 21.6 5.1 5.1
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.7 5.7 4.4
4 Brandon Miller CHA 16.7 4.1 2.9
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.2 4.6 1.4
6 Grant Williams CHA 9.8 4.3 2.4
7 Cody Martin CHA 9.7 4.2 1.8
8 Anthony Black ORL 9.4 3.2 4.0
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.1 2.9 1.8
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.3 2.7 1.5
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.8 7.0 1.2
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.9 4.3 1.2
13 Seth Curry CHA 5.9 2.2 1.1
14 Josh Green CHA 5.6 1.9 1.1
15 Gary Harris ORL 5.5 1.9 0.8
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 3.1 0.6
17 Cole Anthony ORL 5.0 2.2 1.8
18 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.4 0.6
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.0 1.1 0.8
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 3.9 5.6 0.6
21 Taj Gibson CHA 3.3 3.3 0.4
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.3 1.3 0.9
23 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.2 1.7 1.7
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 1.2 0.6
25 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.0 1.4 0.6
26 Trevelin Queen ORL 1.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.