NBA games

MIA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
121–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA2130312910121
DET3225342012123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DET
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 42 40 5 8
Bam Adebayo S 44 20 12 3
Duncan Robinson 36 14 6 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 14 5 3
Haywood Highsmith S 36 9 5 1
Terry Rozier S 40 7 2 5
Josh Richardson 8 5 0 1
Kel'el Ware 9 5 2 0
Kevin Love S 10 3 2 0
Nikola Jovic 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 21 7 9
Malik Beasley 35 21 5 1
Jaden Ivey S 41 19 9 7
Tobias Harris S 40 18 7 4
Isaiah Stewart 23 13 10 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 19 11 1 1
Simone Fontecchio 23 10 2 3
Jalen Duren S 30 8 11 5
Ronald Holland II 16 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:04 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
45%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 7.6 8.9
2 Tyler Herro MIA 23.4 4.9 5.3
3 Jaden Ivey DET 20.1 4.9 4.1
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.7 4.9 4.4
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.9 8.6 3.8
6 Tobias Harris DET 14.2 8.1 2.7
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.6 4.4 4.0
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.8 2.3 2.3
9 Malik Beasley DET 11.4 2.5 1.9
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.3 5.7 2.6
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.3 3.4 1.0
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.3 3.5 1.7
13 Jalen Duren DET 7.8 8.6 1.9
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.0 7.5 2.0
15 Duncan Robinson MIA 6.9 1.9 1.6
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 3.5 1.1
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.4 0.8
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 5.3 1.6 1.7
19 Josh Richardson MIA 5.1 2.3 1.5
20 Alec Burks MIA 5.0 1.7 1.3
21 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.8 3.2 0.6
22 Kevin Love MIA 4.4 1.9 0.8
23 Paul Reed DET 4.3 3.1 1.2
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.9 2.7 0.8
25 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.7 1.5 0.4
26 Dru Smith MIA 2.4 1.4 1.3
27 Marcus Sasser DET 2.1 0.6 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.