NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
117–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29253033117
BOS31342625116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 41 28 3 7
Larry Nance Jr. 27 19 2 2
Clint Capela S 17 18 9 1
Jalen Johnson S 39 18 12 10
Onyeka Okongwu 31 15 6 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 8 9 0
Keaton Wallace S 32 7 2 8
David Roddy 5 2 0 0
Garrison Mathews 23 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 37 5 2
Derrick White S 38 31 6 5
Jayson Tatum S 37 20 6 8
Jrue Holiday S 29 8 3 7
Al Horford S 26 8 4 2
Sam Hauser 19 6 2 0
Payton Pritchard 25 6 1 2
Jordan Walsh 4 0 0 0
Luke Kornet 4 0 2 2
Neemias Queta 21 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keaton Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Clint Capela ATL
11%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
8 Al Horford BOS
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Xavier Tillman BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
31%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 29.6 7.7 5.8
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.6 5.9 4.2
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.8 9.9 5.2
4 Derrick White BOS 19.1 4.8 4.8
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.8 3.1 2.9
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.4 3.9 4.1
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.3 5.0 2.7
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.3 4.3 1.6
9 Clint Capela ATL 10.8 7.4 1.3
10 Al Horford BOS 10.7 5.5 2.4
11 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.6 2.1 1.4
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.3 5.7 1.6
13 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 4.1 1.5
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.5 3.2 1.3
15 David Roddy ATL 7.5 4.6 2.0
16 Neemias Queta BOS 6.5 5.9 0.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.4 4.1 1.3
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.3 1.9 1.2
19 Drew Peterson BOS 5.3 1.4 0.6
20 Vit Krejci ATL 3.8 1.6 1.7
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 3.1 0.9
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.1 1.7 0.7
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.1 0.4
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 2.3 2.1 0.4
25 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.3 0.9 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.