NBA games

DAL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
124–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35342827124
MIN19213330103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MIN
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 36 10 5
Kyrie Irving S 40 36 4 5
P.J. Washington S 36 12 7 2
Daniel Gafford S 20 11 9 0
Dereck Lively II 25 9 8 3
Jaden Hardy 8 7 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 30 5 2 2
Maxi Kleber 9 3 1 0
Dwight Powell 3 2 1 0
Josh Green 18 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 43 28 9 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 28 12 2
Rudy Gobert S 26 9 5 1
Jaden McDaniels S 21 8 1 0
Mike Conley S 21 7 4 2
Kyle Anderson 33 7 3 3
Luka Garza 3 6 1 0
Wendell Moore Jr. 3 5 0 0
Naz Reid 27 5 4 1
Leonard Miller 3 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
57%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.3 9.8 8.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.1 5.8 7.0
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 21.9 3.2 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.4 8.1 3.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.2 6.9 1.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.2 3.6 1.7
7 Mike Conley MIN 12.1 3.6 5.4
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 9.7 1.7
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.6 3.5 1.8
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.2 7.7 1.2
11 Naz Reid MIN 10.8 4.3 1.1
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.0 7.4 1.5
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.5 2.0 1.8
14 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.7 2.7 1.3
15 Josh Green DAL 5.7 2.1 1.4
16 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.2 2.5 2.5
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.2 1.0
18 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 3.7 1.4 0.4
19 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.3 0.6
20 Dante Exum DAL 3.0 1.0 0.8
21 Luka Garza MIN 2.9 0.8 0.3
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.3 2.3 0.7
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 1.9 0.6 0.9
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
25 Josh Minott MIN 1.7 0.7 0.5
26 T.J. Warren MIN 1.7 1.0 0.5
27 Monte Morris MIN 1.7 0.8 0.8
28 Leonard Miller MIN 1.3 0.7 0.4
29 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.