NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27222927105
DAL20292427100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 29 10 9
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 25 5 1
Mike Conley S 34 14 3 7
Rudy Gobert S 39 13 10 1
Jaden McDaniels S 39 10 1 0
Naz Reid 20 6 5 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 13 6 2 0
Kyle Anderson 25 2 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 41 28 15 10
Kyrie Irving S 42 16 2 4
Jaden Hardy 12 13 1 0
Daniel Gafford S 31 12 8 1
P.J. Washington S 42 10 5 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 34 9 5 4
Dante Exum 4 5 0 0
Josh Green 17 5 1 1
Maxi Kleber 13 2 1 1
Dwight Powell 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
15%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
47%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.8 9.0 8.8
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 5.4 6.6
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.3 3.4 5.7
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.5 8.2 3.0
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.1 6.9 1.7
6 Mike Conley MIN 12.1 3.6 5.3
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.9 4.0 1.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 4.1 1.4
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.4 8.9 1.7
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.4 7.2 1.2
11 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 10.7 3.6 1.6
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 1.9 1.8
13 Josh Green DAL 5.9 2.3 1.4
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.1 2.4 2.3
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.6 2.4 1.1
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.1 1.2 1.1
17 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 3.8 1.4 0.5
18 Markieff Morris DAL 3.3 1.3 0.7
19 Luka Garza MIN 3.0 0.8 0.3
20 Dante Exum DAL 2.6 0.9 0.8
21 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.5 0.8
22 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.0 0.6 0.9
23 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 0.7 0.4
24 T.J. Warren MIN 1.8 1.0 0.5
25 Monte Morris MIN 1.8 0.8 0.8
26 A.J. Lawson DAL 1.8 0.9 0.4
27 Leonard Miller MIN 1.4 0.7 0.3
28 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.